In a new Medium post today, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo outlines a few expectations for the iPhone models coming this year. Most of it corroborates previous iPhone 17 rumors and Kuo’s own previous statements, but there is one interesting tidbit: The iPhone 17 Air could be a lot thinner than originally reported.
While previous rumors have put the iPhone 17 Air at around 6.25mm, Kuo says the “thinnest part” of the iPhone 17 Air (or whatever Apple calls the super-slim model) will be just 5.5mm. It’s unclear what he means by this, though—the ultra-thin iPhone 17 could have a tapered design, or he could just be referring to rounded edges that leave less room for certain internal parts that come near the edge of the phone. But it does mean the iPhone 17 Air will be incredibly thin.
So thin, in fact, that compromises will need to be made. In Kuo’s report, it’s the SIM card tray that is the point of focus. Kuo says, as others have, that there’s no room for one in the iPhone 17 Air for a physical tray so it will rely on eSIM only. That’s not a big deal for the U.S., which has used eSIM for a while, but it could cause big problems when trying to sell the phone in China, where physical SIM cards are required. We’ve also heard reports that the phone’s thinness could mean a smaller batter and fewer cameras.
This, and other factors, lead Kuo to believe that 2025 iPhone sales may actually come in 8-10 percent below expectations. This is even with the new iPhone SE launching this spring and the exciting new models in the fall. Kuo built a reputation for predicting future iPhone models and slaes targets more accurately than most, thanks to a bevy of contacts throughout Apple’s supply chain.
Kuo further says that Apple Intelligence has not driven iPhone sales. Customers just aren’t excited about it, as the quality of Apple’s offering has lagged behind competing AI solutions. What’s more, Apple Intelligence is a staged rollout with its most interesting and unique new feature—a more useful and personal Siri—still a couple of months away from release.
Apple si expected to release the iPhone 17 AIr in September as a replacement for the iPhone 17 Plus. However, it’s expected to have a higher price than the $899 iPhone 15 Plus, which could also hurt sales, Kuo claims.
